Statistically speaking, , Baseball, that is.

What's wrong in Rotisserie Baseball with Trades

2006-06-28T22:17:00.000-07:00

A few weeks ago, at a poker game somewhere in the Bay Area, a solitary figure stood in silence, absorbing the slings and arrows of a 4 for 1 deal. Eventually, this tragic hero pled his case. It went something like this: "that guy might be hurt; this guy isn't as good as his stats; I REALLY wanted David Wright". The only absolutely true statement he made was the last. When presented an opportunity to get what he PERCEIVED as the top keeper available from the contenders, Kevin decided it didn't really matter how much it cost.

Greg was not at the poker game, but his side of the deal is easy to imagine. Extort as much as possible from the lower team when you know you've got a player they want. Make the best deal for your team possible.

This week Barry and Ken consummated a similar deal, this time for Rickie Weeks, who may not be nearly as valuable next year at $15 or more (and with Carlos Lee likely somewhere else). Again each participant got what they PERCEIVED to be a good deal.

Here are the relevant stats for the Doyle/Pounder deal:
Before the Doyle/Pounder trade the players had:
HITTERS:
Doyle's giveaways: 22-HR 80-RBI 15-SB and around a season of .298 BA (530 AB). That looks kind of like a $30 ballplayer. With a great $20 keeper hidden in the soft center.

Kevin's giveaways: 14-HR 85-RBI 11-SB and about 1.2 seasons of .285 BA (720 AB). That looks like a $25 ballplayer, who is overpriced and at or above value.

PITCHERS:
Doyle wins this not matter how you slice it unless Heilman becomes the Mets closer this year. Zambrano is a stud and has value, Heilman is but one of maybe 30 good middle relievers.

SINCE THE TRADE:
Doyle got: 2-HR 6-RBI 0-SB and a 70 AB .333 BA along with one win, 14 IP 3.86 ERA and 1.214 Ratio

Kevin got: 3-HR 16-RBI 1-SB and a 57 AB .350 BA along with a 3 IP, 0.00 ERA and 1.333 Ratio.

My take: Doyle got added AB and upgraded pitching - but so far he hasn't won the deal substantially even for this year. That surprises me a bit.

Now for the Bats/9ers deal:
Bats gave up 20-HR 66-RBI 11-SB and a 593 AB .310 Avg (with Lee having been out for most of the year and just returning). Potential is for double this plus 33 % since Lee's stats are miniscule to date.

9ers gave up 13-HR 42-RBI 23-SB and a season of .253 Avg.

My take: Ken killed in this deal - Weeks at $15 next year is a good but not great keeper and Ken gains power and average this year while losing some speed. The key to this is Lee. If he had been healthy Bats would have contended. They might have revived with him back; we'll never know.
But Barry got what he wanted.

After all the analysis, many random thoughts are floating in my head.

Barry was frightened by Josh's blog. I am shocked for two reasons. First, never before in this league has a BLOG influenced owner behavior. Second, this is the first time we've proven that anyone READs these things.
I thought Open FAAB was supposed to keep everyone in contention and not dumping. My team has sucked with $30 Bonds, $30 Gagne and now Roberts down. I've paid a ton of money to try to stay in it and haven't backed up the truck. I guess that doesn't work for everyone.
Both of these deals had one two many players involved for my liking. Occasionally I've turned down deals (not in many years) because they would have hurt the league.
Barry said he was in 11th place. But he's tied for 8th too and only 7 points out of 5th. It seems too early to me to be dumping for anyone - even the Bums, whose team has been decimated (thank God they got Clemens!!!).
Because of the standings I just mentioned, there are not enough teams for the contenders to seek dump deals from - givng Doyle and Ken an advantage over George and Mark. The rest of us are scramblin'.

Later I will recap these deals again. Until then you can be sure I am trying to find a way to make my stinker of a squad respectable.

I remain true to the Rotisserie Gods and also wish health, recovery and strenght to Peter Gammons and his family.

Chasing wins in the National League , , ,

2006-06-24T23:02:00.000-07:00

Got a lot tougher this week. Apparently the comparison of talent between the AL and NL is a bit like comparing the Brazil World Cuppers to the good ol'USA squad.

How else can you explain the dearth of BABI wins since intra-league play (and it KILLS me to write that - I HATE the idea) kicked in.

I was watching tonight (it's Saturday June 23)and NOBODY had a win in BABI - not even from the few NL vs NL contests.

Then Iwant2lickbusch slid in with the only win of the night - a 6 inning shutout from Aaron Sele. I've been around so long I remember when he was expected to be as good as anyone, kinda like Mark Prior.

I guess all we can say is. . . GO National League.

That's the breaks , um, well, that's the contusions

2006-06-20T21:52:00.000-07:00

My rookie season as a Rotisserie owner was in 1984 in a 10 team AL only league. It was more than a year before Barry Bonds major league debut (as good a reference point as any). By the way, my more experienced Roto partner went to Europe for several weeks - in his absence I claimed Todd Henke in August and we won going away. That was back when all transactions were collected on message machines and first come first served got the player.

Anyway, that year was pivotal for me in many ways. It was the year of my separation from my first wife. The divorce would come one year later. We were high school sweethearts, you all know that story or one just like it. It was the year I turned 32. It was the beginning of a nightmarish mid life crisis. Some elements of the years that followed would haunt me for the next twenty years.

But nothing would haunt me like Rotisserie baseball. The only good thing about 1984 was my introduction to this very wierd and unpredictable game. It has a special ability to confound you and make you believe you are a genius when you win. This year is no different. But this year I fear I am to be confounded.

This weekend my prime trading chip, Dave Roberts, for some reason, decided to run into the wall in the left field corner at Anaheim Stadium (or whatever the geek corporate name is). The result, a cringing Roberts, clutching his knee and Dallas McPherson gets an inside the park home run. Is that fair? At least in soccer when a player is truly injured the ball is kicked out of bounds.

But I digress. I saw this on (of course) SportsCenter (does anyone in this league remember life before Chris Berman?). In seconds I was screaming "MR. ROBERTS" and almost immediately watering my potted palm. In one stupid play I lost my prime trading chip (worth 5 to 6 points to many teams and although a keeper, not one I would fret much about trading).

Now, I have about 50 points and am still not out of it, even with the continuing injury to Gagne and the relative ineffectiveness of Bonds. But I believe my injuries are the worst in the league, especially considering I've lost significant value in all of the quantity categories (saves, HR , RBI, SB) and also lost a lot of dollar value (I now have $81 in injured players on my roster).

But I ain't giving up. I'm not (as Boof would say) mathematically eliminated. And THAT is why this is such a great game.

1984 was not a total loss.

The last word (I hope) on a "back up the truck" deal

2006-06-15T22:56:00.000-07:00

As one of the Bay Area Baseball Illusions Founders, I have special dispensation to whine, winge and generally make a nuisance of myself about trades in general and many trades in specific terms.

I agree that the potential traded to Doyle is far greater than what was given up. And Kevin is also correct to point out that each of the offensive players he traded is under producing. But these deals aren't about that. They are about only one thing: trading this year value for next year advantage on draft day. And this trade wasn’t that bad – it wasn’t even close to some we’ve seen. Having said that. . . .

Kevin will agree that he didn't care too much what it took in this year value to get Wright once he set his mind to it. Wright is a great value next year on draft day and let's face it - the Mets won't EVER trade him so you KNOW he's a keeper.

And Greg will agree that he saw a great deal of potential in a 4 player for 2 player swap in terms of value (he upgraded 3 positions, two strongly, and probably only loses a few HR and maybe some Avg.). He clearly wins the current year side of the deal.

So let's give those two a break and not beat them over the head anymore. It will wear thin and both of these guys are (I hope) our good friends.

Now, if you want to talk about trading limitations, I would somewhat agree but only for the following reasons:

o With today’s standings there are not enough teams who are planning for 07 to allow all of the teams going for 06 to have a chance to improve their team.

By the way, maybe such deals should not occur until later in the year, but only for one season did we have a rule that made players traded before the All-Star Break free agents in the next year, with an August 15 trading deadline. That worked, but EVERYONE but me and Pat Pagnillo’s family (blast from the past) HATED it. It was abolished after only one year (Boof led the opposition). The thinking was that by July there is balance to both the buyers and sellers (many teams are clearly out of it). And that six week trading season was pretty awesome.

So I still love the idea. You can still trade to fix your team but the dump deals only affect 6-10 weeks or so of standings.

o The earlier push to get the best keepers makes the overall league LESS competitive since the dumping teams drop to the bottom of categories by trading many starters for one or more keepers. This artificially lifts mediocre teams a point or two.

FYI, I am tracking and will publish later a salary to standings recap just to see if a BABI Steinbrenner approach pays off consistently in points gained. We can also use it to see just how the salary variations actually look during this season.

That’s it for now -

You've gotta start somewhere

2006-06-15T00:05:00.000-07:00

And this is where I am starting. I have a friend named Josh who descended into blogging last year as a way to clear his collective head prior to a rotisserie league draft. Those of us who know him can tell you doubt remains to this day as to his clarity. So I am not writing to organize my thoughts.

Another friend named Ken was sucked down this blogging hell hole this spring and is now teasing little teenagers who google buttmando - they think he's a porn site. So I'm not writing to save America's youth either.

What I hope to do is illuminate the obvious, speculate on the apparent, and elevate those who speak the truth to power.

As John Stewart said last night to Republican Party Chairman Ken Mehlman, "You're the guy who has to spray the perfume on these turds".

As will I for the BABI Rotisserie League.

I look forward to your derision and contempt.